Friday, November 29, 2013

Bid to close Sriracha plant due to smell denied

An attempt by a Southern California town to shut down a hot sauce factory because of its smell has been denied.

Los Angeles Superior Court Judge Robert O'Brien rejected the city of Irwindale's initial bid Thursday to shutter the plant that makes Sriracha hot sauce until the company can reduce the odor, City News Service reported.

"You're asking for a very radical order on 24-hour notice," O'Brien told attorney June Ailin, representing the city.

A Nov. 22 hearing was scheduled on a preliminary injunction.

The sprawling 650,000-square-foot factory owned by Huy Fong Foods processes some 100 million pounds of peppers a year into Sriracha (pronounced sree-YAH-chah) and two other popular Asian food sauces.

The peppers get washed, mixed with garlic and a few other ingredients and roasted. The odor coming from the factory is only there for about three months out of the year, during the California jalapeno pepper harvest season, which stretches from August to about the end of October or first week of November. That's three months too long for some Irwindale residents.

They've complained the garlic and chili fumes are so strong that they get headaches, sore throats and watery eyes. The pepper and garlic fumes are sent through a carbon-based filtration system that dissipates them before they leave the building.

Huy Fong executives said they were cooperating with the city to reduce the smell, but balked at the city's suggestion of putting in a $600,000 filtration system that may not be necessary.

The company said it was looking into other alternatives when the city sued.

Sriracha's little plastic squeeze bottles with their distinctive green caps are ubiquitous in restaurants and home pantries around the world.

Company founder David Tran said his privately held business took in about $85 million last year. Tran moved his production facility to Irwindale from nearby Rosemead two years ago. Tran started cooking up his signature product in a bucket in 1980 an! d delivering it by van to a handful of customers. When the company came to Irwindale, it brought about 60 full-time jobs and 200 more seasonal ones to the city of about 1,400 people.

The secret, he said, is in getting the freshest peppers possible and processing them immediately. The result is a sauce so fiercely hot it makes Tabasco and Picante seem mild, though to those with fireproof palates and iron stomachs it is strangely addicting.

Contributing: Associated Press

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

LIVE FROM FPA EXPERIENCE: 'Seller beware' atmosphere means need for new client approaches

Daniel H. Pink Daniel H. Pink

With access to a broad array of investment information, wealth management choices and worldwide communication, clients are gaining the upperhand in their relationship with their adviser.

Traditonally "the seller" has had more information and it's been a "buyer beware" situation, said Daniel Pink, author of "To Sell is Human: The Surprising Truth About Moving Others," at the Financial Planning Association national conference in Orlando on Saturday. New technology is giving more power to the consumer.

"All kinds of markets have gone from those with information asymmetry to a world where consumers have lots of information, lots of choices and lots of ways to talk back," Mr. Pink said. "Now it's seller beware."

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Mr. Pink offered advisers a few unconventional tips for bringing today's clients on board and getting them to agree with investments and other decisions that are in their best interest.

For one, he said that actually changing a client's mind on a particular issue or investment matters less than giving them a way to act on particular concerns. Giving clients a way to take a step forward with an investment or other idea may be more fruitful than spending too much time just trying to convince a client to buy into an entire strategy or concept.

When "the facts are on your side," Mr. Pink said, asking clients some suggestive questions often beats providing those answers to clients.

Monday, November 25, 2013

Apple Inc. (AAPL): Why Apple Ignored NFC? It Has Something Better In Its Kitty

Technology enthusiasts, as well as consumers, are wondering why Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) ignored near-field communication (NFC) in its devices when NFC was a key feature in all premium mobile devices.

However, few could have known that Apple is betting on another technology, which has the potential to trump NFC. We are talking about Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE).

NFC is an inexpensive passive system for payer identification. It is popular in Europe but not in the US. It's well-suited to the task of fast purchases. Credit cards and key fobs have embedded NFC chips encoded with the user's payment data. While convenient for finalizing the purchase, the 10cm range limits usefulness and increases costs.

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This is where BLE steps in. BLE is active but low power. The effective range of 20 metre (clear field with no obstacles is 70 metre) means that a retail store could cover its entire showroom with a $99 three-unit bundle. Using the smartphone enables more sophisticated interactions than just user authentication and purchase.

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Skeptics may fear that BLE purchases could have risks. How will store personnel know that the item was paid for? The 70-meter range would enable more hacking of the cash register system.

UBS analyst Steven Milunovich said though smartphone thefts would have more dire implications, these issues are solvable and that eventually BLE will be used for purchases.

Meanwhile, micro mapping with BLE is a potential killer app. Retailers prefer transactions closer to the cash registers, and that's exactly the trend that's happening throughout technologies. Mobile payment systems and checking out by yourself and all these things that are about to happen require maps for all this stuff.

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This is where Ap! ple's recent acquisition makes sense. In case you don't know, Apple recently acquired a company called WiFiSLAM for about $20 million in March. WiFiSLAM, an indoor GPS startup, enables a smartphone to pinpoint its location in realtime up to 2.5 meters in accuracy.

The two-year-old startup has developed ways for mobile apps to detect a phone user's location in a building using Wi-Fi signals. The developers can use this technology for indoor mapping and new types of retail and social networking apps.

Tech forecaster Mark Anderson said, "The idea of micro mapping is so obvious and so large financially in terms of its benefit that it's almost like we should forget the rest of the killer apps. When people get excited about advertising and local-based advertising, they ought to be very, very excited about the idea of micro maps."

WiFiSLAM could be helpful in creating micro mapping as it combines standard WiFi with algorithms for Simultaneous Localization and Mapping to utilize both WiFi triangulation and smartphone sensors to map a path accurately. The newest smartphones have a gyroscope, magnetometer, and accelerometer on board that WiFiSLAM exploits.

The multi-trillion dollar local commerce business is due for some new technology earthquakes, Milunovich noted.

Market research firm ABI Research estimates the indoor location services market as $4 billion in 2018. Another firm, MarketsandMarkets, is looking for $2.6 billion growing at a 42 percent CAGR from 2013-18.

It appears that Apple has chosen Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) over NFC as its communications technology given a further range of 70 meters and has the potential to exploit the massive location services market more effectively. It also underscores Apple's strategy of creating something new and not going along with the tide.

Saturday, November 23, 2013

5 Earnings Stocks Everyone Hates -- but You Should Love

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Short-sellers hate being caught short a stock that reports a blowout quarter. When this happens, we often see a tradable short squeeze develop as the bears rush to cover their positions to avoid big losses. Even the best short-sellers know that it's never a great idea to stay short once a bullish earnings report sparks a big short-covering rally.

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This is why I scan the market for heavily shorted stocks that are about to report earnings. You only need to find a few of these stocks in a year to help enhance your portfolio returns -- the gains become so outsized in such a short time frame that your profits add up quickly.

That said, let's not forget that stocks are heavily shorted for a reason, so you have to use trading discipline and sound money management when playing earnings short-squeeze candidates. It's important that you don't go betting the farm on these plays and that you manage your risk accordingly. Sometimes the best play is to wait for the stock to break out following the report before you jump in to profit off a short squeeze. This way, you're letting the trend emerge after the market has digested all of the news.

Of course, sometimes the stock is going to be in such high demand that you risk missing a lot of the move by waiting. That's why it can be worth betting prior to the report -- but only if the stock is acting technically very bullish and you have a very strong conviction that it is going to rip higher. Just remember that even when you have that conviction and have done your due diligence, the stock can still get hammered if The Street doesn't like the numbers or guidance.

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If you do decide to bet ahead of a quarter, then you might want to use options to limit your capital exposure. Heavily shorted stocks are usually the names that make the biggest post-earnings moves and have the most volatility. I personally prefer to wait until all the earnings-related news is out for a heavily shorted stock and then jump in and trade the prevailing trend.

With that in mind, here's a look at several stocks that could experience big short squeezes when they report earnings this week.

Adtran

My first earnings short-squeeze play is communications network service provider Adtran (ADTN), which is set to release numbers on Wednesday before the market open. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect Adtran to report revenue of $175.10 million on earnings of 22 cents per share.

The current short interest as a percentage of the float Adtran stands at 7.6%. That means that out of the 54.85 million shares in the tradable float, 4.22 million shares are sold short by the bears. If the bulls get the earnings news they're looking for, then this stock could easily rip sharply higher post-earnings.

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From a technical perspective, ADTN is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last six months, with shares moving higher from its low of $19.94 to its recent high of $27.92 a share. During that uptrend, shares of ADTN have been making mostly higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of ADTN within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade post-earnings.

If you're bullish on ADTN, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above its 52-week high at $27.92 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that hits near or above its three-month average action of 624,605 shares. If that breakout triggers, then ADTN will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $35 to $38 a share.

I would simply avoid ADTN or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout and then drops back below its 50-day at $26.16 a share and then below more near-term support at $25.68 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then ADTN will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major support levels at $23.55 to its 200-day at $22.92 a share.

Wolverine World Wide

Another potential earnings short-squeeze trade is men's footwear and apparel player Wolverine World Wide (WWW), which is set to release its numbers on Tuesday before the market open. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect Wolverine World Wide to report revenue $712.48 million on earnings of $1.02 per share.

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The current short interest as a percentage of the float for Wolverine World Wide is notable at 6.7%. That means that out of the 44.56 million shares in the tradable float, 3.26 million shares are sold short by the bears. This isn't a huge short interest, but it's more than enough to spark a sharp short covering rally if the bulls get the earnings news they're looking for.

From a technical perspective, WWW is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock has been trending sideways inside of a consolidation pattern for the last three months, with shares moving between $55.01 on the downside and $60.29 on the upside. Shares of WWW have recently started to trend back above its 50-day moving average, and it's starting to move within range of triggering a big breakout trade.

If you're in the bull camp on WWW, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above some resistance at $59.85 a share and then once it takes out its 52-week high at $60.35 a share high volume. Look for volume on that move that hits near or above its three-month average action of 418,075 shares. If that breakout hits, then WWW will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $70 to $75 a share.

I would simply avoid WWW or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout and then drops back below its 50-day at $57.02 a share and then below more key near-term support at $55.01 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then WWW will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major support levels at $50 to its 200-day at $49.69 a share.

Fastenal

One potential earnings short-squeeze candidate is industrial and construction supplies retailer Fastenal (FAST), which is set to release numbers on Wednesday before the market open. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect Fastenal to report revenue of $866.03 million on earnings of 41 cents per share.

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The current short interest as a percentage of the float for Fastenal sits at 7.1%. That means that out of the 272.04 million shares in the tradable float, 19.36 million shares are sold short by the bears. The bears have also been increasing their bets from the last reporting period by 2%, or by about 385,000 shares. If the bears get caught pressing their bets into a strong quarter, then shares of FAST could easily trend sharply higher post-earnings as the bears rush to cover some of those bets.

From a technical perspective, FAST is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last month, with shares moving higher from its low of $43.75 a share to its recent high of $51.60 a share. During that uptrend, shares of FAST have been making mostly higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of FAST within range of triggering a big breakout trade post-earnings.

If you're bullish on FAST, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $51.60 to $52.84 a share and then once it takes out its 52-week high at $53.38 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that hits near or above its three-month average action of 1.61 million shares. If that breakout hits, then FAST will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $60 o $65 a share.

I would avoid FAST or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout, and then drops back below both its 200-day at $48.46 a share and its 50-day at $48.13 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then FAST will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major support levels at $45 to $43.75 a share.

Ruby Tuesday

Another earnings short-squeeze prospect is casual dining restaurant player Ruby Tuesday (RT), which is set to release numbers on Wednesday after the market close. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect Ruby Tuesday to report revenue of $298.27 million on a loss of 5 cents per share.

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The current short interest as a percentage of the float for Ruby Tuesday sits at 4.3%. That means that out of the 56.38 million shares in the tradable float, 2.56 million shares are sold short by the bears. The bears have also been increasing their bets from the last reporting period by 9.6%, or by about 224,000 shares. If the bears get caught pressing their bets into a bullish quarter, then shares of RT could easily rip sharply higher post-earnings as the bears rush to cover some of their positions.

From a technical perspective, RT is currently trending above its 50-day moving average and below its 200-day moving average, which is neutral trendwise. This stock has been trending sideways inside of a consolidation chart pattern for the last two months, with shares moving between $7.03 on the downside and $8.25 on the upside. If this stock can manage to take out the upper-end of its recent sideways trading chart pattern, then it could trigger a solid breakout trade post-earnings.

If you're bullish on RT, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance level $7.96 to $8.25 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that hits near or above its three-month average action of 540,811 shares. If that breakout hits, then RT will set up to re-fill some of its previous gap down zone from July that started near $9.50 a share. Any high-volume move above $9.50 to $10 will then give RT a chance to tag $11 a share.

I would simply avoid RT or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout and then drops back below some key near-term support levels at $7.30 to $7.03 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then RT will set up to re-test or possibly take out its 52-week low at $6.75 a share, which is bearish technical price action.

Voxx International

My final earnings short-squeeze play is automotive parts and accessories retailer Voxx International (VOXX), which is set to release numbers on Wednesday after the market close. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect VOXX International to report revenue of $186.73 million on earnings of 9 cents per share.

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The current short interest as a percentage of the float for VOXX International sits at 5.2%. That means that out of the 19.59 million shares in the tradable float, 1.03 million shares are sold short by the bears. This is a decent short interest on a stock with a very low tradable float. Any bullish earnings news could easily set off a solid short-squeeze for shares of VOXX post-earnings.

From a technical perspective, VOXX is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock has been uptrending for the last two months, with shares moving higher from its low of $11.76 a share to its recent high of $14.02 a share. During that uptrend, shares of VOXX have been mostly making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of VOXX within range of triggering a major breakout trade post-earnings.

If you're in the bull camp on VOXX, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance at $14.02 to $14.29 a share and then once it takes out its 52-week high at $15 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that hits near or above its three-month average volume of 124,531 shares. If that breakout hits, then VOXX will set up to enter new 52-week high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $18 to $20 a share.

I would avoid VOXX or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout and then drops back below its 50-day at $13.20 a share and then below more near-term support at $13 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then VOXX will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major support levels at $11.76 to its 200-day at $11.11 a share.

To see more potential earnings short squeeze plays, check out the Earnings Short-Squeeze Plays portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.


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Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.


Thursday, November 21, 2013

UTX may furlough 5K workers, blames shutdown

HARTFORD, Connecticut (AP) — United Technologies says it may furlough more than 5,000 workers if the government shutdown continues into next month.

The company said Wednesday that its Sikorsky division, which makes Black Hawk helicopters, would be hit first. It expects nearly 2,000 employees, including those employed at facilities in Connecticut, Florida and Alabama, will be furloughed Monday.

The Hartford, Conn.-based manufacturer said it would halt some defense manufacturing because government inspectors themselves have been furloughed. That leaves it without the necessary federal approvals to make military products.

If the shutdown continues through next week, the furloughs would extend to its Pratt & Whitney and UTC Aerospace Systems division, bringing the total number of employees on hold up to 4,000. That number could exceed 5,000 if the shutdown stretches into next month.

United Technologies employs about 218,300. Of its annual revenue of $57.7 billion in 2012, $10.1 billion came from the U.S. government.

"This is what happens when House Republicans decide that political gamesmanship is more important than people's jobs," Connecticut's Gov. Dannel P. Malloy, a Democrat, said. "It's unconscionable that so many working families would be unfairly put in this situation."

Members of Connecticut's Democratic Congressional delegation also called for House Republicans to end the budget impasse.

"These wounds are tragically self-inflicted and dramatize the cumulative and increasing destructive economic effects of the shutdown," said Sen. Richard Blumenthal.

U.S. Rep. Rosa DeLauro, whose district includes Sikorsky's headquarters, said, "The political games must end to keep these hardworking men and women on the job, prevent further pain for working families and end the damage it is inflicting on our economy."

The partial government shutdown, which took effect Tuesday, has idled roughly 800,000 "non-essential" federal workers.

United Technolog! ies' stock fell $2.40 to close at $104.98 Wednesday.

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Top 5 Companies To Own For 2014

Chrysler Group LLC filed its initial document on the road to a potential IPO on Monday.

The filing�includes few details and only lists J.P. Morgan Chase as an underwriter for the deal at this point. The company isn’t planning to sell any shares itself: instead the filing is an attempt by the union to find a market for its large position.

The filing is full of one set of details, however. Risk factors. Lots of them. Mostly, the risks are tied to the relationship Chrysler has with Italy’s Fiat(F.MI), which has some different views than the union over an IPO.

Here are the more intriguing risk factors:

Fiat isn’t sure about this IPO idea: ��iat has informed us that it is evaluating the various potential impacts that a public offering and the consequential introduction of public stockholders may have on its views of the Fiat-Chrysler Alliance, and as such, is considering whether or not to continue expanding the Fiat-Chrysler Alliance beyond its existing contractual commitments. If Fiat becomes unwilling to work with us beyond the scope of its existing contractual obligations, there may be a material adverse effect on our business prospects, financial condition and results of operations.��/p>

Top 5 Companies To Own For 2014: Mint Technology Corp.(MIT.V)

Mint Technology Corp., through its subsidiary, Mint Middle East LLC, provides vertically integrated prepaid card and payroll services in the Middle East. The company manages the issuance, administration, customer support, payment processing, set-up, sponsorship, and reporting of the cards and related activities. It designs, packages, delivers, and manages MasterCard and Visa branded payment programs for global acceptance and utility for credit card issuers, retailers, and member associations. The company also plans to provide alternative payment solutions, including microcredit, mobile top-up, and money remittance services to the unbanked sector of the working population in other countries in the Middle East and North Africa. Mint Technology Corp. is based in Toronto, Canada.

Top 5 Companies To Own For 2014: Nuveen Insured California Select Tax-Free Income Portfolio(NXC)

Nuveen California Select Tax-Free Income Portfolio is a closed-ended fixed income mutual fund launched by Nuveen Investments Inc. It is managed by Nuveen Asset Management. The fund invests in the fixed income markets of United States. It invests in the securities of companies that operate across diversified sectors. The fund primarily invests in municipal bonds. It employs fundamental analysis to create its portfolio. The fund benchmarks the performance of its portfolio against Barclays Capital California Municipal Bond Index and S&P California Municipal Bond Index. Nuveen California Select Tax-Free Income Portfolio was formed on June 19, 1992 and is domiciled in the United States.

Top 5 Cheap Companies To Own In Right Now: Autocanada Inc (ACQ.TO)

AutoCanada Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates franchised automobile dealerships in Canada. The company offers various automotive products and services, including new and used vehicles, vehicle parts, vehicle maintenance and collision repair services, vehicle protection products, and other after-market products. It sells various new vehicle brands, including Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat, Hyundai, Nissan, Infiniti, Volkswagen, Mitsubishi, and Subaru. The company also arranges financing for customers through third-party financial institutions, as well as facilitates the sale of third party insurance products to customers, including credit and life insurance policies, and extended service contracts. As of March 22, 2012, it operated 24 franchised dealerships in British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia. AutoCanada Inc. was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Edmonton, Canada.

Top 5 Companies To Own For 2014: I Grandi Viaggi(IGV.MI)

I Grandi Viaggi, a tour operator, owns and manages villages and resorts in Italy and internationally. It operates villages under the IGV Club, Holiday Club, and Comitours brand names. The company was founded in 1931 and is based in Milano, Italy.

Top 5 Companies To Own For 2014: Rotork(ROR.L)

Rotork p.l.c. engages in the design, manufacture, and support of actuators, systems, and related products worldwide. It provides a range of products, systems, and services for the motorization and manual operation of adaption to industrial valves and dampers for isolation duty and process control applications. The company operates in four segments: Controls, Fluid Systems, Gears, and Instruments. The Controls segment designs, manufactures, and sells various electric valve actuators. The Fluid Systems segment is involved in the design, manufacture, and sale of pneumatic and hydraulic valve actuators. The Gears segment designs, manufactures, and sells gearboxes, adaption, and ancillaries for the valve industry. The Instruments segment offers high precision pneumatic controls and power transmissions for flow control, pressure control, flow measurement, and pressure measurement. The company also provides various services comprising field services, retrofit services, actuator o verhaul, preventative maintenance, shutdown outages, extended scope, spares parts, factory fit, technical support, and product training services. It serves oil and gas, power generation, water and sewage, and marine industries. The company is headquartered in Bath, the United Kingdom.

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Amazon.Com, Inc. (AMZN): Workspaces Negative For Citrix Systems, Inc., Vmware, Inc.

Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) announced its entry into the desktop virtualization market. This offering, WorkSpaces, provides secure, cloud-based access to corporate documents & applications via the user's device of choice (laptop, tablet, etc.).

WorkSpaces, considered one of the Amazon's significant product announcements, eliminates the upfront and on-going expenses associated with building out an owned infrastructure (<50% costs versus traditional desktop virtualization infrastructure solutions).

"AWS VPC can support between 16 private IP Addresses to 16,500 private IP addresses, which means that AWS Workspace is suited for both Med-to-Large enterprises," Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry wrote in a note to clients.

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AWS WorkSpace is negative for Citrix Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CTXS) and VMware, Inc. (NYSE:VMW).

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WorkSpace may hurt Citrix's products such as XenApps, XenClient, XenDesktop, which accounts for more than 25 percent of Citrix's revenues. On the other hand, VMware gets about 8 percent of its sales from this space.

"Converged view is that AMZN is getting the same pricing discounts from Microsoft on Windows OS and Office, that a typical large reseller/OEM gets, which is about 30% to 40% discount," Chowdhry noted.

Over the last 6 years, whenever Amazon enters a technology space, the pricing in that specific market collapses, and the same could happen here. The pricing for both Citrix's Xen Offerings, as well as VMWare's View product, may drop significantly, thereby dampening their sales and margins.

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"Neither VMW nor CTXS has the economies or scale or scope to effectively compete with AMZN AWS WorkSpace, and probably they are better o! ff exiting these businesses, before these businesses end up being the new Blackberry," Chowdhry said.

With a few clicks in the AWS (Amazon Web Service) Management Console, customers can provision a high-quality desktop experience for their users at less than half the cost of most traditional virtual desktop infrastructure (VDI) solutions.

On-premises VDI solutions offer the benefits of centralized desktop management and security at a high cost, requiring companies to invest in their network and storage infrastructure to support the delivery of a high-quality virtual desktop experience.

By migrating enterprise desktops to the cloud, Amazon WorkSpaces eliminates both the up-front investment and the ongoing management of infrastructure while still offering all the security and efficiency of a centralized model. For a low monthly fee, Amazon WorkSpaces provides a complete cloud-based desktop computing service including compute, persistent storage, and software applications.

Customers can select from a range of Amazon WorkSpace bundles that provide a choice of CPU, memory, storage and applications – and launch any number of desktops with a few clicks. Amazon WorkSpaces can integrate with an existing Active Directory to allow end-users to use their existing enterprise credentials to access their Amazon WorkSpace.

Amazon WorkSpaces includes technology components licensed from Teradici and leverages the PCoIP (PC-over-IP) protocol to compress, encrypt and encode the users' desktop computing experience and transmit 'pixels only' across any standard IP network to users' devices.

In addition, the WorkSpaces Sync client lets users sync their documents between their Amazon WorkSpace and other computers so that they always have access to their documents. This client will be downloadable at no charge from the Amazon WorkSpaces client download page, and the Amazon App Store for Android, Google Play and the iTunes App Store.

Beyond the productivity benefits, the enterprises ! are expec! ted to save over 40 percent of the life cycle cost for desktop services while also gaining additional benefits such as built-in security, telecommuting flexibility, high availability and simplified operations management.

Monday, November 18, 2013

HomeAway, Inc. (AWAY): Book It Now Before It Becomes Expensive

HomeAway, Inc. (NASDAQ: AWAY) shares could be among the best potential 2014 performers in the mid-cap Internet space as the company rolls out its pay-per-booking (PPB) model, fine- tunes its operations, and then ramps marketing its spend into 2015 to drive growth through the new model.

HomeAway operates the largest vacation rental marketplace globally, with websites in 11 languages servicing 145 countries. Users can search for and compare vacation rental properties on the company's websites for free. HomeAway charges property owners subscription fees to list spaces for vacation rental.

The company guided for core subscription listings growth in the fourth quarter. The PPB transaction value per booking, thus far, looks similar to the core vacation rental business (e.g., over $1,000 per booking).

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"Early commentary around the rollout of PPB alongside the subscription model points to substantial lifts in conversion of traffic to listings, limited cannibalization and compelling listings quality," Deutsche Bank analyst Lloyd Walmsley said in a note to clients.

Meanwhile, the PPB listings backlog from property managers, which is set to go live in the next few weeks, suggests a rapid ramp to more than 35k by year-end. Management's commentary around the early PPB transition exceeded the market expectations even if the guidance for productivity of listings (1 turn per year) seems conservative.

[Related -Internet Investors: What To Watch For?]

"Despite strong early feedback, the transition to PPB remains early with potential transitional issues. The company guided conservatively for the PPB revenue contribution in 2014, as the initial placement of these listings will be at the bottom of search results," Walmsley said.

Despite these risks, the company has know-how from BedandBreakfast.com where the company has a hybrid subscription/PPB model.

Over time, PPB listings should get more exposure, vi! a initiatives such as re-distribution to online travel agencies (e.g. the Expedia deal) or through SEM (search engine marketing) spending, where the company can drive traffic to transactional listings on a profitable basis.

HomeAway has seen steady growth in the update of both online payments and online bookings across its two core sites, HomeAway.com and VRBO.com. HomeAway continues to show solid growth in users, page views and time spent across HomeAway Sites.

"We prefer to look at look at HomeAway on FCF multiples / yields, as this metric better matches the attractive cash collection cycle of the business," Walmsley said.

On the valuation front, AWAY trades at a blended average of 3.5 percent FCF yield and at 20 times 2015 EV/EBITDA given the high visibility subscription model.

However, HomeAway has yet to prove it can scale the surfacing of these listings in search results in such a way that drives bookings and revenues without reducing the value proposition of core subscription listings.

But, it will take time to drive traffic to these listings without interfering with the core, cash-cow subscription listings.

Nevertheless, the transition makes sense and could work. It might  not be a bad idea for investors to add positions before success becomes more evident.

Sunday, November 17, 2013

Beer Man: Blonde Ale tops Day of the Dead brews

Beer Man is a weekly profile of beers from across the country and around the world.

This week: Death Rides a Pale Horse

Cerveceria Mexicana, Tecate, Mexico

http://mexicalibeer.com

I came across some samples of Day of the Dead beer the last week of October, and although the official observances of this tradition have passed, the beers should still be available.

On Nov. 2, All Soul's Day, I tried five different DOTD ales with varying results. My favorite of the bunch was Death Rides a Pale Horse Blonde Ale. The 5.6% ABV ale had a nice light malt profile, slight sweetness and little bitterness, tempered by a bit of grassy hops. A tingly carbonation and a dryness that kicked in quickly after each sip made for a nice finish. Blonde ales can be rather bland, but this was worth having more than one.

My second favorite was Immortal Beloved Hefeweizen. It didn't skimp on the typical banana-clove aroma from the yeast and also had a hint of vanilla in the background. The flavor was quite fruity, overshadowing the wheat grain, with banana winning the fight with lemon. There was a slight sharpness to the finish that helped alleviate the fruit flavors and the creamy body.

The 5.5% ABV beer did not have the overwhelming pour that most German wheat beers do, but this did not affect the carbonation at all. A bit different from the typical wheat beer, but not detrimental to its enjoyment.

The other beers didn't quite live up to the standards of the initial two. Queen of the Night Pale Ale, Hop On or Die India Pale Ale and Death Becomes You Amber Ale were not bad, but nothing made them stand out from the hundreds of other similar beers on U.S. shelves. They were all better than Corona, however.

Cerveceria Mexicana has widespread distribution throughout the U.S., so although Day of the Dead observances are over, these beers should have some staying power on the shelves. It would be nice to see the Mexican brewery find a way to put a native spin on its beers instead of ! just offering styles that the U.S. is already bombarded with.

Many beers are available only regionally. Check the brewer's website, which often contains information on product availability. Contact Todd Haefer at beerman@postcrescent.com. To read previous Beer Man columns Click here.

Saturday, November 16, 2013

4 Stocks Under $10 to Trade for Breakouts

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- At Stockpickr, we track daily portfolios of stocks that are the biggest percentage gainers and the biggest percentage losers.

>>5 Stocks Under $10 Set to Soar

Stocks that are making large moves like these are favorites among short-term traders because they can jump into these names and try to capture some of that massive volatility. Stocks that are making big-percentage moves either up or down are usually in play because their sector is becoming attractive or they have a major fundamental catalyst such as a recent earnings release. Sometimes stocks making big moves have been hit with an analyst upgrade or an analyst downgrade.

Regardless of the reason behind it, when a stock makes a large-percentage move, it is often just the start of a new major trend -- a trend that can lead to huge profits. If you time your trade correctly, combining technical indicators with fundamental trends, discipline and sound money management, you will be well on your way to investment success.

>>Why You Should Buy Hedge Funds' 5 Favorite Stocks

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at a several stocks under $10 that are making large moves to the upside today.

Empresa Distribuidora y Comercializadora Norte

Empresa Distribuidora y Comercializadora Norte (EDN) distributes and sells electricity in the north-eastern region of greater Buenos Aires. This stock closed up 3.9% to $5.75 a share in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $5.56-$5.75

52-Week Range: $1.65-$7.03

Thursday's Volume: 51,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 78,734

>>5 Stocks With Big Insider Buying

From a technical perspective, EDN trended higher here right above some near-term support at $5.30 with lighter-than-average volume. This move is quickly pushing shares of EDN within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if EDN manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance levels at $5.93 to $6 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in EDN as long as it's trending above some key near-term support levels at $5.30 or at $5, and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 78,734 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then EDN will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $6.43 to its 52-week high at $7.03.

Jinpan International

Jinpan International (JST) designs, manufactures and sells cast resin transformers for voltage distribution equipment in China. This stock closed up 8.3% to $7.16 in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $6.65-$7.25

52-Week Range: $4.38-$7.86

Thursday's Volume: 136,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 38,054

>>5 Rocket Stocks to Buy This Week

From a technical perspective, JST exploded higher here right off its 50-day moving average of $6.71 with above-average volume. This move pushed shares of JST into breakout territory, since the stock took out some near-term overhead resistance at $6.94. Market players should now look for a continuation move higher in the short-term if JST can manage to take out Thursday's high of $7.25 with volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in JST as long as it's trending above Thursday's low of $6.65 and then once it sustains a move or close above $7.25 with volume that hits near or above 38,054 shares. If we get that move soon, then JST will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $7.63 to its 52-week high at $7.86. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give JST a chance to tag $8.50 to $9.

Chemocentryx

Chemocentryx (CCXI) is a biopharmaceutical company engaged in discovering, developing and commercializing orally administered therapeutics to treat autoimmune diseases, inflammatory disorders and cancer. This stock closed up 5.7% to $4.95 in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $4.66-$4.98

52-Week Range: $4.57-$14.96

Thursday's Volume: 278,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 581,109

>>2 Oversold Stocks That Could Bounce Higher

Top Penny Stocks To Watch For 2014

From a technical perspective, CCXI spiked sharply higher here right above some near-term support at $4.57 with lighter-than-average volume. This stock has been downtrending badly for the last three months and change, with shares plunging from its high of $14.75 to its recent low of $4.57. During that downtrend, shares of CCXI have been consistently making lower highs and lower lows, which is bearish technical price action. This spike higher on Thursday is now starting to push shares of CCXI within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if CCXI manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance at $4.99 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in CCXI as long as it's trending above some key near-term support at $4.57 and then once it sustains a move or close above $4.99 with volume that hits near or above 581,109 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then CCXI will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $5.48 to $5.90. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give CCXI a chance to tag its next major overhead resistance levels at $6.45 to $7.

Atossa Genetics

Atossa Genetics (ATOS) is a health care company involved in the prevention of breast cancer through the commercialization of diagnostic medical devices and laboratory developed tests that can detect precursors to breast cancer. This stock closed up 7.5% to $2.14 in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $2.00-$2.20

52-Week Range: $1.74-$12.40

Thursday's Volume: 253,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 405,322

From a technical perspective, ATOS ripped sharply higher here right off some near-term support at $2 to $1.92 with lighter-than-average volume. This move is quickly pushing shares of ATOS within range of triggering a big breakout trade. That trade will hit if ATOS manages to take out some key near-term overhead resistance levels at $2.20 to $2.26 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in ATOS as long as it's trending above some key near-term support at $1.92 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 405,322 shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then ATOS will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $3 to $3.20.

To see more stocks that are making notable moves higher today, check out the Stocks Under $10 Moving Higher portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.


RELATED LINKS:



>>4 Stocks Rising on Big Volume



>>5 Stocks Set to Soar on Bullish Earnings



>>5 Tech Stocks to Trade This November

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.


Friday, November 15, 2013

The Biggest Hazard of Being a Cash-Rich Company

The trend of companies in America hoarding cash keeps growing.

The 10 U.S. companies with the most cash reported a combined $540 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments in their last quarterly reports. That's up nearly 3.7% in just the last quarter.

These cash hoards are why activist investors like Carl Icahn have been pushing companies' boards to share their wealth with stockholders.

In an October letter, Icahn called for tech giant Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) to begin a $150 billion share buyback program. According to its Q3 earnings release on Sept. 28, Apple currently holds $40.4 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments. That, according to Icahn, makes Apple ripe for a major buyback.

And that doesn't even count Apple's overseas holdings or other current assets.

The $40.4 billion Apple owns is huge, but that's only good for No. 5 on our list of top cash-rich companies.

Here's the list of top 10 "cash-rich" companies in the S&P 500, based on cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments, plus how they used the cash they did spend:

General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) reported cash and cash equivalents of $130.3 billion in September 2013, down slightly from $132.4 billion in June and $138 billion in March. Currently, GE offers its shareholders a dividend of $0.76 per year, or 2.8%. Early in 2013, it was reported that GE planned on buying back $10 billion of its stock from investors. The buyback was prompted by GE selling 49% stake in NBC Universal to Comcast Corp in March. In April, GE acquired the Texas-based oil company Lufkin Industries for $3.3 billion. Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT) had a total of $80.6 billion in cash and short-term investments at the end of September. This was the fourth consecutive quarter of growth for the company that reported $77 billion in June, $74.4 billion in March, and $68.2 billion in December 2012. MSFT provides its shareholders with a 3% dividend, or $1.12 per year. In September, MSFT made headlines for its $40 billion stock buyback and 22% dividend increase. In the same month, Microsoft completed a $7.2 billion acquisition of Nokia Corp.'s (NYSE: NOK) cellphone business. Google Inc. (Nasdaq: GOOG) is third with a cash and short-term investment hoard of $56.4 billion as of September. Google is another company that has added to its cash total in recent quarters, reporting $54.3 billion in June and $50.0 billion in March. Despite all that cash, GOOG does not issue a dividend and has never offered a shareholder buyback. The search engine mogul has a long history of acquisitions, and its purchase of Israeli navigation software Waze, for just shy of $1 billion in June 2013, was its largest in several years. Cisco Systems Inc. (Nasdaq: CSCO) had $50.5 billion in its July statement, compared to $47.3 billion and $46.3 billion in the previous two quarters. Cash-rich Cisco uses part of that money to offer shareholders a quarterly dividend of $0.17. However, CSCO recently offered a buyback of just $2.8 billion, which was the smallest buyback the company has offered in 12 years. Since June, Cisco has acquired Composite Software Inc., Sourcefire, WHIPTAIL, and Insieme Networks. Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) has a cash pile of $40.4 billion as of September. While that total was good for No. 5 on the list, it was down from the $42.5 billion that AAPL had reported in the previous quarter. The tech giant doled out a dividend of $12.20 last year, good for a 2.3% yield. AAPL is currently in the middle of $60 billion buyback program, and the company bought back more than $16 billion worth of shares in the June quarter alone. In terms of acquisitions, AAPL has been busy since August purchasing tech companies Passif Semiconductor, Matcha.tv, and AlgoTrim. Oracle Corp. (NYSE: ORCL) is a major software company that is sitting on a major lump of cash. In its August report, ORCL had approximately $39 billion in cash and short-term investments. This was a $7 billion increase from its previous quarter report of $32.2 billion. Oracle decided to double its dividend in June, to $0.12 per quarter. Despite the bump, shareholders still see a dividend yield of 1.4%. At the same time, the software giant announced a $12 billion buyback program. Like other major tech companies, Oracle has remained active on the acquisitions front, purchasing telecom hardware/software company Avaya, cloud-computing company Compendium, and cloud-based software company BigMachines since October. Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK.A) not surprisingly owns a massive amount of cash, with a total of $42 billion reported in September. This was up from a June total of $35.6 billion, but down from a March total of $49 billion and a December 2012 total of $46.9 billion. BRK.A's latest buyback was in December 2012 when the company purchased $1.2 billion worth of its stock. Berkshire Hathaway does not pay a dividend. In its most recent acquisition, Berkshire Hathaway's Marmon Group purchased a beverage dispensing company from IMI Plc for $1.1 billion in October. Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) held a total of $37.5 billion in cash and short-term investments this September, up from $36.6 billion in June and $34.3 billion in March. Ford provides its shareholders with a $0.10 quarterly dividend, or 2.4%. Ford has remained quiet in terms of mergers and acquisitions and has not offered a share buyback program. Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) reported cash and short-term investments of $33.6 billion in its July statement, down from $35.3 billion in March and up from $32.6 billion in December 2012. The biopharmaceutical firm gives its investors a dividend of $0.96 annually, or 3.1%. This past June, Pfizer announced a $10 billion buyback program, which was the fourth major share repurchase for the company in the past several years. PFE had been in discussions to acquire Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Nasdaq: ONXX) in July, but a deal was never made. General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) rounds out the list of cash-rich companies with a total of $29.5 billion reported in September. This total marked an improvement from $26.9 billion in June, and $27.8 billion in March. Unfortunately for investors, GM does not pay a dividend, despite the huge cash hoard. In December 2012, GM announced a share buyback program of $5.5 billion from the U.S. Treasury. In September, Fiat agreed to purchase GM's 50% holding in the two companies' shared venture, VM Motori.

Hot Safest Companies To Watch In Right Now

Earlier this year, Money Morning's Executive Editor William Patalon III detailed how a push from activist investors like Icahn can affect cash-rich companies like AAPL - which is up about 21% since Patalon's analysis.

Here's exactly how the "Icahn Effect" puts big money in your pocket...

Related Articles:

Quartz:
All These Companies Have More Cash Right Now Than the U.S. Government The Verge:
Investor Carl Icahn Pushes Apple to Spend Cash Hoard on Massive $150 Million Stock Buyback

Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Top 10 China Stocks To Invest In Right Now

With shares of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) trading around $470, is AAPL an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let�� analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Apple designs, manufactures, and markets mobile communication and media devices, personal computers, portable digital music players, and a variety of related software, services, peripherals, networking solutions, third-party digital content, and applications. The company�� products and services include the iPhone, iPad, Mac, iPod, Apple TV, a portfolio of consumer and professional software applications, the iOS and OS X operating systems, iCloud, and further accessory, service, and support offerings. Apple also delivers digital content and applications through its iTunes, App, iBook, and Mac App stores.

Apple released its new lineup of iPhones on Tuesday, including a cheaper, more basic version of the iPhone called the iPhone 5C to target emerging markets. Apple said the new phones would be available in China on September 20.�Apple has received a license from Chinese regulators for its iPhones to operate on China Mobile�� (NYSE:CHL) 3G and 4G networks, according to the Wall Street Journal. China Mobile is China�� largest carrier, with 700 million subscribers, representing a huge untapped market for Apple.

Top 10 China Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Focus Media Holding Limited(FMCN)

Focus Media Holding Limited, a multi- platform digital media company, operates out-of-home advertising network using audiovisual digital displays in China. It operates out-of-home advertising network based on the number of locations and flat-panel television displays in its network. The company, through its multi-platform digital advertising network, reaches urban consumers at locations and point-of-interests over various media formats, including audiovisual television displays in buildings and stores, advertising poster frames, outdoor light-emitting diode digital billboards, and Internet advertising platforms. As of June 30, 2010, its digital out-of-home advertising network had approximately 142,000 LCD displays in its LCD display network and approximately 275,000 advertising in-elevator poster and digital frames, installed in approximately 90 cities. The company also provides Internet marketing solutions; and sells software licenses and services, primarily including Adf orward software. Focus Media Holding Limited was founded in 1997 and is based in Shanghai, the People?s Republic of China.

Top 10 China Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Xueda Education Group(XUE)

Xueda Education Group provides tutoring services for primary and secondary school students in the People?s Republic of China with a focus on offering personalized tutoring services. Its services include consultation and assessment, formulation of a customized study plan, personalized tutoring, and delivery of supporting services. The company also provides course offerings that cover various academic subjects taught in primary and secondary schools, such as mathematics, English, physics, Chinese, and chemistry; and self-designed courses beyond the standard curriculum in certain subjects, as well as in subjects not taught at public primary and secondary schools. As of December 31, 2010, its tutoring service network comprised 207 learning centers and approximately 9,650 full-time service professionals, serving customers located in 53 economically developed cities across 27 of China?s 31 provinces and municipalities. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Beij ing, the People?s Republic of China.

10 Best Canadian Stocks To Own Right Now: AsiaInfo-Linkage Inc.(ASIA)

AsiaInfo-Linkage, Inc. provides telecommunications software solutions and information technology (IT) products and services to telecommunications carriers and other enterprises in the People?s Republic of China. The company offers business and operation support systems product suites, including OpenBilling, a billing solution for telecommunications operators; OpenCRM, a CRM solution suite for telecommunications operators; OpenBOSS, a carrier-class business operation support system solution; OpenBI, a carrier-class operating analysis and decision support system platform; OpenPRM, a system that calculates, manages, and reconciles payment for intercarrier network access. It also provides network management solutions comprising NetXpert, a data and Internet protocol network management solution; and OpenXpert, an integrated telecommunications network management system. In addition, the company offers service applications products, such as Mail Center, an online messaging softwa re; Spam Patrol software for real time anti-spam control; and Net Disk, a network hard disk product, which facilitates Internet-based file transfer, sharing, and management, as well as supports other functions, such as data processing of short message folders and synchronization of mobile devices. Its service applications products also include Internet Short Messaging Gateway, a business support platform for value-added short messaging services; and Device Management Platform that enables mobile operators to manage various mobile devices and perform remote mobile device management, such as remote diagnosis and parameter setup. In addition, it offers software enhancement and maintenance, system integration, and other value-added IT consulting and planning services. The company was formerly known as AsiaInfo Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to AsiaInfo-Linkage, Inc. in July 2010. AsiaInfo-Linkage, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People?s Republ ic of China.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Rajhkumar K Shaaw]

    BNP Paribas Securities (Asia) Ltd., Macquarie Capital Securities (India) Pvt. and Ambit Capital Pvt. cut their Sensex targets as the Reserve Bank of India unexpectedly increased its benchmark interest rate to stem a record decline in the rupee and curb consumer prices in the world�� second-most populous nation. Strategists reduced their average profit estimate by 4.5 percent as higher borrowing costs threaten to worsen the slowest economic expansion since 2009.

  • [By Rich Duprey]

    Chinese telecom software provider AsiaInfo-Linkage (NASDAQ: ASIA  ) announced this morning that it has agreed to be acquired by�a private investor consortium led by CITIC Capital Partners for approximately $890 million.

  • [By Jonathan Burgos]

    ��arkets are entering a period of uncertainty,��said Yoji Takeda, Hong Kong-based head of Asian equities at RBC Investment (Asia) Ltd., which oversees $1.5 billion. ��here�� a policy vacuum in Japan and the government isn�� going to come up with new policies until parliament resumes sessions in September. While the possible tapering of U.S. stimulus has been more or less priced in, people tend to be a little bit cautious until it happens.��

Top 10 China Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Home Inns & Hotels Management Inc.(HMIN)

Home Inns & Hotels Management Inc. develops, leases, operates, franchises, and manages a chain of economy hotels in the People?s Republic of China. The company operates its hotels under the Home Inn brand name. As of April 28, 2011, it had approximately 800 Home Inns in operation and 1,000 Home Inns sealed in franchise agreements. The company was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People?s Republic of China.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Belinda Cao]

    The Bloomberg China-US Equity Index (CH55BN) of the most-traded Chinese companies in the U.S. slumped 3.4 percent last week to a seven-month low of 89.04. The gauge traded at 13.5 times estimated earnings, 3.6 percent below the S&P�� valuation, data compiled by Bloomberg show. China Southern Airlines Co. (ZNH) and China Eastern Airlines Corp. (CEA) lost more than 6 percent April 5, while Home Inns & Hotels Management Inc. (HMIN) tumbled 16 percent in the week.

  • [By Seth Jayson]

    Home Inns & Hotels Management (Nasdaq: HMIN  ) reported earnings on May 13. Here are the numbers you need to know.

    The 10-second takeaway
    For the quarter ended March 31 (Q1), Home Inns & Hotels Management missed estimates on revenues and beat expectations on earnings per share.

  • [By Jim Jubak]

    The New York traded ADRs of China's Home Inns and Hotels Management (HMIN) have climbed 15.5% from September 24 to the close on October 11.

    Part of the reason is a October 10 recommendation from Goldman Sachs that added the ADRs to its top pick list. And part of the reason is a huge surge in domestic travel during China's recently concluded National Day holiday week. (Home Inns and Hotels Management is a member of my Jubak's Picks portfolio.)

Top 10 China Stocks To Invest In Right Now: CNOOC Limited(CEO)

CNOOC Limited, through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, production, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and other petroleum products. The company?s oil and natural gas properties are located in offshore China, which include Bohai Bay, western south China Sea, eastern south China Sea, and east China Sea, as well as in Indonesia, Iraq, and other regions in Asia; and Oceania, Africa, North America, and South America. As of December 31, 2010, the company had net proved reserves of approximately 2.99 billion barrels-of-oil equivalent, including approximately 1.92 billion barrels of crude oil and 6,458.3 billion cubic feet of natural gas. It also provides bond issuance services; and has a joint venture with Bridas Energy Holdings. CNOOC Limited was founded in 1982. The company is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong, and is considered a Red Chip company due to its listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. CNOOC Limited is a subsidiary of China National Of fshore Oil Corporation.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Rich Smith]

    In a deal being described as its biggest international bond offering ever, and the largest dollar bond offering in all of Asia in at least the past decade, Chinese oil major CNOOC (NYSE: CEO  ) announced Friday that it will issue $4 billion worth of dollar-denominated bonds. These include:�$750 million worth of 1.125% guaranteed notes due 2016,�$750 million worth of 1.750% guaranteed notes due 2018,�$2 billion in 3.000% guaranteed notes due 2023, and�$500 million in 4.250% guaranteed notes due 2043.

  • [By Arjun Sreekumar]

    For instance, Chesapeake's 2010 agreement with China's largest energy company, CNOOC (NYSE: CEO  ) , allowed CNOOC to purchase one-third undivided interest in a portion of Chesapeake's Eagle Ford assets in exchange for financing 75% of Chesapeake's drilling and completion expenses.

Top 10 China Stocks To Invest In Right Now: China Lodging Group Limited (HTHT)

China Lodging Group, Limited, together with its subsidiaries, develops, operates, and manages a chain of hotels in the People?s Republic of China. It operates HanTing Express Hotel that targets knowledge workers and value-conscious travelers; HanTing Seasons Hotel, which targets mid-level corporate managers and owners of small and medium enterprises; and HanTing Hi Inn for budget-constrained travelers. As of March 31, 2011, the company had 473 hotels consisting of 259 leased-and-operated hotels and 214 franchised-and-managed hotels; and 162 hotels under development, including 74 leased-and-operated hotels and 88 franchised-and-managed hotels. China Lodging Group, Limited was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People?s Republic of China.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Seth Jayson]

    Calling all cash flows
    When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on China Lodging Group (Nasdaq: HTHT  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

  • [By Seth Jayson]

    Calling all cash flows
    When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on China Lodging Group (Nasdaq: HTHT  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

Top 10 China Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd.(QIHU)

Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd. provides Internet and mobile security products in the People's Republic of China. Its principal products include 360 Safe Guard, an Internet security product for Internet security and system optimization; 360 Anti-Virus, an anti-virus application to protect users? computers against trojan horses, viruses, worms, adware, and other forms of malware; and 360 Mobile Safe, a security program for the Google Android, Apple iOS, and Nokia Symbian smartphone operating systems. The company?s platform products comprise 360 Safe Browser, a Web browser; 360 Personal Start-up Page, a default homepage of 360 Safe Browser and a key access point to popular and preferred information and applications; 360 Application Store, a key access point to securely obtain and manage software and applications; and 360 Safebox, a solution that protects users against thefts of personal account information. It also provides online advertising services, including online marketi ng services and search referral services; and Internet value-added services comprising the operation of Web games developed by third-parties, remote technical support, and cloud-based services. The company was formerly known as Qihoo Technology Company Limited and changed its name to Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd. in December 2010. Qihoo 360 Technology Co. was founded in 2005 and is based in Beijing, the People?s Republic of China.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Rick Munarriz]

    Baidu's fallen out of favor since Qihoo 360 (NYSE: QIHU  ) introduced a rival search engine last year. Even though Qihoo's 13% share of China's search market has come largely at the expense of non-Baidu rivals, worrywarts fear that the presence of a legitimate competitor will slow Baidu's already decelerating revenue.

  • [By Dan Caplinger]

    Most of the fears that investors have come from Baidu's rising competition. Traditionally, Baidu's partnership with SINA (NASDAQ: SINA  ) Weibo has given the search star useful social information to augment its services. But with rival Alibaba having taken an 18% stake in Weibo three months ago, that partnership could be in danger if Alibaba's use of Weibo information leads Baidu customers to advertise less. Meanwhile, the gains for Qihoo 360 (NYSE: QIHU  ) have continued, with the stock having almost quadrupled in the past year as the upstart company has achieved a 15.6% search market share. With its browser having about 25% market share, Qihoo's growth prospects might be slowing down, but the network effects could continue eating away at Baidu's leading position in the market.

  • [By Rick Munarriz]

    According to Li, Baidu's planned payouts to union members would equal to 13.7% of Citi's revenue target for Baidu this year, up sharply from last year's 8.7% cut. Is Baidu being more generous to keep webmasters close? This doesn't seem necessary. Qihoo 360 (NYSE: QIHU  ) is just starting to monetize its search engine, so it will be a long time before advertisers are willing to pay up for leads through Qihoo 360's network. Qihoo 360's move for an in-house solution means less action for its ad-serving partner Google, and that weakens another potential Baidu rival.

  • [By Monica Wolfe]

    Qihoo 360 Technology Co. (QIHU)

    During the second quarter, Burbank made his largest increase in Qihoo 360 Technology. The guru upped his stake 3662.45% by purchasing a total of 1,530,025 shares at an estimated average price of $38.49 per share. The price per share has skyrocketed approximately 84% since then.

Top 10 China Stocks To Invest In Right Now: 51job Inc.(JOBS)

51job, Inc. provides integrated human resource services primarily in the People?s Republic of China. . The company provides recruitment related advertising services, including print advertising services through 51job Weekly, which is a city-specific recruitment advertising publication that is published once a week and is distributed as an insert in local newspapers and/or on a stand-alone basis; and online recruitment services through its Website, www.51job.com. It also offers other human resource related services, such as business process outsourcing, which consist of social insurance and welfare payment processing, regulatory compliance, and payroll processing; and executive search services, as well as conducts training seminars in the areas of business management, leadership, sales and marketing, human resource, negotiation skills, financial planning and analysis, public administration, manufacturing, secretarial, and other skills for the general public and corporate cl ients. In addition, the company provides campus recruitment services; conducts salary, employee retention, and other human resource related surveys; organize and host annual human resource conferences and events, which include lectures, seminars, workshops, and networking opportunities for human resource professionals; and provides assessment tools to assist human resource departments in evaluating capabilities and dispositions of job candidates and existing employees, aiding employee placement, and allocating employee resources, as well as hiring and support services to employers on select recruitment projects. It provides recruitment and other human resource related services to employers through its sales offices, as well as through its sales and customer service call center. The company was founded in 1998 and is based in Shanghai, the People?s Republic of China.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Ben Rooney]

    51job (JOBS), an online job search website similar to Monster.com (MWW), has surged more 60% this year.

    But there is one notable Chinese dot-com stock that's sitting out the big rally. Shares of Renren (RENN), the social network known as China's Facebook (FB, Fortune 500), are down 3% for the year.

Top 10 China Stocks To Invest In Right Now: China Kanghui Holdings(KH)

China Kanghui Holdings develops, manufactures, and markets orthopedic implants and associated instruments. It offers approximately 30 product series of orthopedic implants and associated instruments for trauma, spine, cranial maxillofacial, and craniocerebral indications. The company?s trauma products include a range of nails, plates and screws, and cranial maxillofacial plate and screw systems used in the surgical treatment of bone fractures. Its spine products comprise screws, meshes, interbody cages, and fixation systems used in the surgical treatment of spine disorders. China Kanghui Holdings also manufactures products, including implants, implant components, and instruments for original equipment manufacturers. The company markets its products under Kanghui and Libeier brand names through third-party distributors to hospitals and surgeons. It sells its products in Asia, Europe, South America, and Africa. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Changzho u, the People?s Republic of China.

Top 10 China Stocks To Invest In Right Now: China Automotive Systems Inc.(CAAS)

China Automotive Systems, Inc., through its interests in Sino-foreign joint ventures, engages in the manufacture and sale of power steering systems and other component parts for the automotive industry in the People?s Republic of China. It offers a range of steering system parts for passenger automobiles and commercial vehicles. The company provides 4 separate series, 307 models of power steering, including rack and pinion power steering, integral power steering, electronic power steering and manual steering, steering columns, steering oil pumps, and steering hoses. China Automotive Systems, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Jing Zhou City, the People?s Republic of China.

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Will Pandora Continue Its Surge Higher?

With shares of Pandora (NYSE:P) trading around $18, is P an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Pandora is an Internet radio company that operates in the United States with over 125 million registered users. Pandora's Music Genome Project and its playlist-generating algorithms predict listener music preferences, play music content suited to the tastes of each individual listener, and introduce listeners to music they will love. The main sources of revenue for the company are advertising as well as subscriptions. As the Internet music boom continues, Pandora is well-positioned to capitalize on potential subscriptions and advertising marketing share.

It looks like Pandora battle to pay musicians and songwriters less for streaming their music is paying off for the company. Mark Mahaney of RBC Capital Markets told CNBC on Monday that Pandora stock is a smart buy despite a recent price drop. “The cost structure is starting to really work positively, i.e., they're bringing down those music royalty costs,” he said in a video segment. “They're making them smaller and smaller. They're showing that they can monetize mobile usage. This is the poster child for mobile monetization, and they finally got it working.”

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Strong

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Pandora stock has been a strong surge higher this year. The stock is inching closer to initial public offering prices but it still has some room to go. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Pandora is trading between its rising key averages which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

P

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Pandora options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Pandora Options

54.43%

16%

15%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very significant amount of call and put options contracts as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

September Options

Flat

Average

October Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Mixed Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Pandora’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Pandora look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

1200.00%

-11.11%

-69.72%

100.00%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

51.18%

59.07%

53.81%

59.99%

Earnings Reaction

-12.89%

-4.25%

17.56%

-17.46%

Pandora has seen mixed earnings and rising revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have expected more from Pandora’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Pandora stock done relative to its peers Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI), CBS (NYSE:CBS), Cumulus Media (NASDAQ:CMLS), and sector?

Pandora

Sirius XM Radio

CBS

Cumulus Media

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

100.30%

29.24%

42.26%

96.07%

38.97%

Pandora has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Pandora is an Internet radio company that attempts to match listeners with their preferences in order to discover music they love. The company seems to be winning a royalty battle with musicians and songwriters that may potentially help the company. The stock has been surging higher this year but still has room to go before reaching IPO prices. Over the last four quarters, earnings have been mixed while revenues have been rising, however, investors in the company have expected more during these announcements. Relative to its peers and sector, Pandora has been a year-to-date performance leader. Look for Pandora to OUTPERFORM.

Monday, November 11, 2013

Following in the Steps of John Templeton

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Legendary investor John Templeton died in 2008, leaving behind a set of investing maxims that are still followed by the managers of Templeton funds. As an investor, Templeton was a contrarian by nature, notes Vaughan Scully, of S&P Capital IQ in The Outlook.

He moved his office from New York to Nassau, the Bahamas, in part, to get away from the groupthink that prevailed on Wall Street, and claimed his performance improved because of it.

One of his maxims exhorts investors to do the same: "If you buy the same securities as other people, you will have the same results as other people. It is impossible to produce superior performance unless you do something different from the majority. To buy when others are despondently selling and to sell when others are greedily buying requires the greatest fortitude and pays the greatest reward."

James Harper, one of five managers currently running the Templeton World Fund (TEMWX), cites this maxim in explaining how the fund is managed and the philosophy behind it.

"We are completely bottom-up driven, five-year time horizon, value-oriented stock pickers," he says. "We tend to buy when people are selling, and sell when people are buying. That, I think, gives you the best long term performance."

Templeton sold his fund company in 1992 to what is now Franklin Templeton Investments, but the Templeton funds are still managed in Nassau according to John Templeton's unique style.

The Templeton World Fund opened in 1978 and has long been team managed. In 2011, however, after a period of inconsistent performance, the team was restructured, to give each of the five managers one fifth of the fund's assets and have them invest independently.

In addition to managing the World Fund assets, Harper and the firm's other portfolio managers, are also fundamental sector analysts, with Harper covering global insurance and information technology hardware. These analysts produce a Bargain List that portfolio managers use to initiate new positions.

Currently, the fund has 102 different holdings, a number Harper says managers try to keep from growing much larger. The team tries to keep every holding at least 0.50% of total assets; the largest holding, Citigroup (C) is 2.4% of the assets under management.

The bottom-up driven management sometimes leads the fund to have significantly different weightings on, both a sector, and a geo-graphic basis than its benchmark, the MSCI World Index. Harper says the managers just let their bottom-up, value style take them wherever it leads.

As of July 31, the fund had about 42% of its assets in Europe and just 39% in North America, compared with the MSCI World index, which has almost 55% of assets in the US.

Three of the fund's top 10 holdings—ING Groep (ING), BNP Paribas (Paris:BNP) (US:BNPQY), and Credit Suisse Group (CS)—are European financials that came into the fund beginning in early 2012, when the team began to sense the pessimism regarding the European banking sector was too extreme.

"We took a pretty aggressive stance on financials 18 months ago." Harper says. "In May 2012, there were valuations that were effectively unprecedented. European financials were trading at 30% of book value. That's a good example of us saying 'the market is clearly concerned.' We didn't believe that was the case and saw amazing opportunities. A lot of those companies have doubled. That's what we're trying to do on an ongoing basis."

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Saturday, November 9, 2013

Did Twitter Mark 'The Top'?

While business travel can certainly be a chore at times (can't the folks at American Airlines figure out to schedule maintenance BEFORE they board the entire flight?) it also allows one the opportunity to get away from the blinking screens, the phones, the tweets and spend some time thinking about the big picture market environment.

Uh, It's a Bull Market

Although Thursday's algo-induced dive certainly wasn't any fun and definitely did some damage to the charts on a near-term basis, it is important to recognize that the S&P 500 is up 22.5 percent so far this year and that if calendar 2013 ended yesterday, the year's return would be one of the top results seen over the last fifteen years.

So, while the "ignition algos" may have created some fear yesterday and the bears could certainly spend some more time exploring the downside in the coming days, the key to this market continues to be that it's a bull market until proven otherwise.

Bears: The Top is In

The bear camp will argue that "all good things come to an end" and that since "no one rings a bell at market tops," investors should be ignoring all the chatter about new all-time highs and instead be focusing on the next big decline.

Those dressed in fur this morning also argue that Twitter's (NYSE: TWTR) IPO marked an important emotional top for the market as many analysts feel that the firm's inflated value is an indication of a "bubbly" market environment. Therefore, there was no shortage of traders looking to "call the top" yesterday and make a name for themselves by moving to the short side after TWTR gained 73 percent on its first day of trading.

However, remember that the bears have been singing a similar tune all year. So, before one runs out and starts buying the inverse stock market ETFs that profit when stock prices fall (SH, SDS, SPXU come to mind) or start "buying volatility" via the VXX, VXY, VIXY, etc., there are a couple of points worth considering.

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The Public is Buying

As if the thirty-two record closes for the S&P 500 weren't a clue, the fact that the public appears to be going gaga for stock funds this year should remind investors that there is money coming into this stock market.

According to TrimTabs, the public has poured $277 billion into U.S.-listed stock mutual funds and ETFs so far this year. For those keeping score at home, that's the most for any calendar year since the $324 billion of inflows seen in 2000.

Further, the public appears to be emboldened by the market's recent new highs as about one-sixth of that cash has been placed into stock funds and ETFs in October alone. TrimTabs notes that the $45.5 billion in net inflows seen in October was the fifth-highest monthly total on record.

Remember, Strength Begets Strength

Yes Virginia, it is true that the public tends to come late to most stock market parties. And yes, it is also true that the last time the public appeared to be this excited about stocks was right about the time the tech bubble was bursting.

However, it is also worth noting that new highs in the stock market tend to beget more new highs before the bears ultimately gain control.

According to Ned Davis Research, the stock market tends to move higher - a lot higher - on average when the S&P 500 first moves to a new high after a bear market. NDR's data shows that since 1928, the S&P has gained an average of 40.3 percent over a period of 644 days AFTER the first new high following a bear market has been reached.

On a median basis, the S&P has gained 18.4 percent over 417 days following a new high.

Near-Term: It's All About the Fed

However, this morning the game appears to be all about the Fed. While the Jobs report showed the economy produced nearly double the number of new jobs last month than had been anticipated, traders appear to be selling the news.

The idea here is simple really. Traders assume that the report puts "the taper" back on the table at the December FOMC meeting. And since the majority of economists surveyed by the WSJ are currently looking for the taper to begin either in January or March, the good news on the economy may be bad for stocks as traders fret about the outlook for the "liquidity trade."

The bottom line is the bears have had lots of chances to get something going of late and have squandered nearly all of them. Thus, the question is if this time will be different.

Click Here For More "Daily State of the Markets" Commentary

Friday, November 8, 2013

U.S. stocks rise at the open after jobs report

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks edged up at the open on Friday, as investors digested a stronger-than-expected jobs report that initially hammered stock futures. The S&P 500 (SPX) was last up 3 points, or 0.2%, to 1,750, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gained 25 points, or 0.2%, to 15,620. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) rose 21 points, or 0.5%, to 3,878. The jobs report at first spurred bets that the Federal Reserve could begin tapering its bond-buying program sooner than expected, but then investors reconsidered that reaction. Nick Colas, chief market strategist at ConvergEx Group, said stock futures recovered as market participants questioned some details in the jobs report. While the headline number was strong, many jobs added were part time, and participants wondered about the eventual revisions, he said. "I think there's a lot of skepticism of the quality of this number," Colas told MarketWatch.

Wednesday, November 6, 2013

BofA CEO: Housing Market 'Fairly Stable'

Bank of America Corp.(BAC) Chief Executive Brian Moynihan said the U.S. housing market is “fairly stable” at a Wall Street Journal event in New York Wednesday.

Bloomberg

Big banks have seen their mortgage banking income decline in recent quarters as refinancing activity fizzles. But Mr. Moynihan said that a decrease in refinancing activity is not indicative of the strength of the overall U.S. housing market. Instead, he said that home purchases, which have grown slightly since the beginning of the year, are what spurs broader economic growth.

The head of second-largest U.S. bank by assets also said that consumer spending has been solid, even in the face of a partial government shutdown.

“Even in those weeks, you didn’t see a break in consumer spending,” Mr. Moynihan told Wall Street Journal Managing editor Gerard Baker.

Mr. Moynihan said he thinks the debate in Washington has become more sober since the government shutdown, and that a government default on its debt is off the table.

He added that he believed the Federal Reserve would keep rates low until the economy starts to show greater signs of growth.

Mr. Moynihan also spoke about how the bank has spent more than $40 billion to date putting its legal troubles behind it. He wouldn’t say whether he thinks the government is unfairly “shaking down” big banks with penalties for crisis-era behavior.

“What’s fair and unfair is a debate I have at 10 o’clock at night by myself,” he said.

Monday, November 4, 2013

The Dow's Recent Big Moves May Soon Be the New Normal

Recently my colleague Morgan Housel wrote about how 2013 has been a very light year in terms of volatility. Morgan noted that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) is on track to be the least volatile year since 1995, based on the number of days in which the index has moved higher or lower by 1% or more. If things remain the same for the rest of the year, it will be the 13th least volatile year since 1928.

On Aug. 13, Morgan wrote:

Since 1928, the Dow has closed up or down more than 1% an average of 57 days per year. So far this year, there have been 15 closes up or down more than 1%. If that trend holds, we'll finish the year with about 21 1% days. Compare that with 148 1% days in 2009, 79 in 2010, and 54 in 2011.

Since the time Morgan's article was published, the Dow closed down 1.47% on Aug. 15, bringing the total 1% moves for the Dow to 16 in 2013. Morgan's estimate of 21 total days in 2013 of 1% moves may likely hold up, but I think we'll see more than what Morgan is predicting, based on the reasons for which we've experienced volatility thus far in 2013.

A one-way ticket to volatility, please!
At the Dow's current level, it needs to gain or lose slightly more than 150 points to change by 1%. In the past I've talked about the high number of triple-digit moves the Dow experienced during the month of June and a number of other 100-point Dow moves clustered together during the year -- and I concluded that the clusters of moves all correlated to Federal Reserve meeting dates. Nineteen of the 24 days in June that saw triple-digit moves were probably caused by the rapid increase in interest rates as investors began growing concerned about how the Fed's policies may change in the future.

Of the 16 days in 2013 on which the Dow has moved more than 1%, seven of them came within days after a Fed meeting. Six of the 16 came in June, when interest rates were rising, and the most recent was Aug. 15, after rates again jumped higher as investors received positive economic data -- which may mean the economy is strong enough for the Fed to pull the plug on its stimulus program and begin tapering.

The renewed fears of tapering really started on Aug. 6, when we had not one, but two Federal Reserve officials telling the world that they believed the Fed will probably begin tapering its $85 billion bond-buying program sometime this year. Since then, the Dow has fallen seven out of the past nine trading days. Two weeks ago, the Dow dropped 232 points, or 1.48%, and this past week it fell 344 points or 2.23%. The Fed has three more meetings scheduled for the year, with the next coming Sept/ 17-18, meaning that would be the earliest we could see the tapering actually begin and when serious volatility would begin as a result.

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But investors should also note that even if the Fed doesn't start tapering at that meeting, the markets will probably move more than 1% at least once in the days following the meeting, as it has all this past year. And what if the central bank does start tapering? Well, it's going to be June all over again, with the overwhelming majority of the trading days experiencing triple-digit moves and a high-single-digit number of days in which the Dow moves more than 1%.

While I think volatility is going to increase for the remainder of 2013, that doesn't mean I'm going to change my trading habits or my investing ideal of buying strong companies and owning for them for a long time. The Motley Fool's free report "3 Stocks That Will Help You Retire Rich" names stocks that could help you build long-term wealth and retire well, along with some winning wealth-building strategies that every investor should be aware of. Click here now to keep reading.